President Donald Trump during the first day of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, on September 9, 2026. | Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images If the midterms were a referendum on whether trans athletes should be barred from women’s sports, or the White House ballroom should be gorgeously renovated, or God should be identified as “nonbinary,” then Republicans would have a clear and confident closing message. Key takeaways • The cost of living is midterm voters’ top issue. • The war in Iran has led to the first decline in real wages since 2023. • Trump could b...